Month: January 2015

So far this winter season, we have received a total of 8.3″ of snow.  Last year at this time, we had shoveled 24.1″ of the awful stuff.

The gas prices in our area are at $1.89 — about 60% lower than the $3.19 that we were charged a year ago.

Both facts and the information they represent are cause for great glee in my neighborhood.  One represents a huge savings of time and mental stamina, while the other positively impacts the pocketbook…

…and yet, I know that we will soon be hearing about the negative implications of both.  It took the multiple-feet of snow last year to get us out of the drought.  I fear that the lack of piles to slowly seep into the water table will come back to haunt us in other ways this spring.

And we know that the drop in oil prices is impacting investors and businesses throughout the global economy.  The United States both exports and imports oil, leading to mixed impact overall.  Oil production jobs, and the states that house them, are at jeopardy of declines, while other areas benefit from increased spending by consumers.  Other countries are looking at reduced subsidies, revenue shortfalls in exporting nations, deflation and forecasts of recession due to lower growth.

There is no such thing as all good news or all bad news.  Just as we know there are always two sides of a story when someone is telling it, there are also two sides of the issue on a more global scale.

So enjoy the low prices and the minimal snowfall while you can.  You’ll pay the price for both later!

Sources:
Schnack’s Weather Blog by Mark Schnackenberg on www.addins.kwwl.com — snowfall as of January 14

http://www.fuelgaugereport.aaa.com

Here are the big winners and losers of low oil prices in by the Economist on http://www.businessinsider.com on October 26, 2014

For the first time since 2000, the National Weather Service will significantly upgrade its technological capacity.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will spend about $45 million to triple its computational ability in January, and then again by the end of the year.  And as a result: the weather people predict greater accuracy in their forecasts.  

It seems ironic that the people in the business of making predictions would add another conjecture to an already imprecise line of work, but they have done just that.

Think of how different things would be if they were right and future weather patterns could be determined with relative accuracy.  People would have more notice in emergency situations.  Concerts and weddings would no longer be “rained out” because they could have moved indoors with proper planning.  Social events could be arranged around suitable weather: no sledding days scheduled without snow nor pool parties in a storm.  The guesswork would be out of the age-old question as to whether to carry an umbrella or to wear boots.

I think people would be more accepting of the weather, whatever it may be, if they knew the forecast with relative certainty in adequate time to plan for it.  I hate winter, not so much for the cold, but because it is a season of plans in limbo.  You never know what the weather will “allow” you to do or how much time it will take to do it due to travel restrictions and snow.

This month, we enter a new age where enhanced computational power tries to predict the next moves of weather patterns.  As the old commercial said: “You can’t fool Mother Nature,” but I’ll bet even with the 5,000 trillion calculations/second, she can still fool us.

Source:  Prediction: better accuracy by Erik Hogstrom in the Telegraph Herald, January 11, 2015, p. 8B, 10B.