It was ironic that yesterday’s blog was about surprise. I think most people where I live woke up to a surprise yesterday — a couple inches of the first snow. The morning paper read: “little or new accumulation here.” The day before they predicted “snow flurries” for today. They were wrong.
I wonder if the meteorologists woke up to a surprise too. Did they go to bed thinking there would only be a dusting and wake up with a gasp as I did upon seeing the winter wonderland? Think of how many times the actual weather wasn’t what you were expecting; does the same happen to them? Do they keep a secret tally of how many forecasts they got right and how many times they missed?
We spend a lot of time and energy on weather forecasts and in the end we always get what Mother Nature wants instead of what the meteorologists predict. Some of us also spend a lot of time on sales forecasting, stock market predictions, construction time/cost estimations and the like. For any activity that involves gazing into that proverbial crystal ball, know that the images there are fuzzy. Don’t have a false sense of security or certainty based upon a prediction. Remain flexible enough to handle things when reality and guessing don’t match.
— beth triplett
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