Approximately 31 million ballots were submitted to online contests trying to pick the men’s NCAA March Madness results. It didn’t take long to weed out the majority of people — after the first round (Thursday), only 2100 remained and by Friday, it was down to 11. After Saturday’s games, none were perfect. Not one person out of 31 million guessed all the results correctly.
Many of those making predictions were made by people who were simply guessing but at least some of the brackets were filled out by people who had followed collegiate basketball all season and were knowledgeable about the sport. Still, no one accurately accounted for the upsets and surprises that are a hallmark of the tournament.
Keep this in mind the next time you are making predictions — or, in business-speak “forecasts” — for your organization. You may have insights, trends, likelihood, knowledge, and research to back you up, but no one can truly predict the future. Things happen that no one expects, surprises occur, and the whole never seems to go as planned. Have a contingency for when your version of #13 Yale beats your #4 Auburn in the first round.
