Yesterday I wrote about data and the volatile nature of projections but what’s worse than inaccurate forecasts? Not doing them at all.

A colleague recently looked at attendance data and trends and calculated that the next event could have a substantially larger number of participants. As with all projections, he made assumptions to reach that conclusion, but they were reasoned and not totally off base…

…only they ended up being wrong. His staff did extra work and had high expectations for a record-setting crowd, only to find little increase in the number who showed up.

So, what happens next time? Do you ignore the trend line? Set up only for a lower number? Go through all the extra work again “in case”?

My advice: if the projections are reasonably thought out, you should prepare for them to materialize. Your staff might think you are crying wolf but is far better to be overprepared than to be caught off guard.

 

About the Author leadership dots by dr. beth triplett

Dr. beth triplett is the owner of leadership dots, offering coaching, training and consulting for new supervisors. She also shares daily lessons on her leadershipdots blog. Her work is based on the leadership dots philosophy that change happens through the intentional connecting of small steps in the short term to the big picture in the long term.

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